Expanding the Convention Center: We Be Scammed

Anyone who believes in the advisability of expanding the Convention Center should take a listen to today's Radio Times show:

http://www.whyy.org/91FM/radiotimes.html

The chap from the Brookings Institute explains, among other interesting facts, that actual hotel room bookings turns out to be less than 1/2 of those projected for the last CC expansion (not an atypical error, it seems). And, the amount of hotel business generated by the CC is only about 11% of the total hotel business of the City. Not very likely that a reasonably moderate increase from 11% is going to create a windfall of tax revenue, now is it?

Given operating costs and cost of debt - guess what, CC expansion is more than likely a net loser. Even further, imagine the extent of the loss if there were a terrorist attack or some other major event that would have a negative impact on convention business. Even in places which have attractions Philly can't compete with, like Orlando, cities are expanding well beyond levels that would make sense from a careful analysis (in 2000, prior to expansion, Orlando did more events than they did after doubling the size of their convention center).

And that doesn't even figure in "opportunity cost." What will the lost benefits from other, more worthy, projects?

And what will the negative impact be from making Center City even less pedestrian friendly than it already is?

Even further, imagine the

Even further, imagine the extent of the loss if there were a terrorist attack or some other major event that would have a negative impact on convention business.

Or imagine if companies start relocating to the city and increased amounts of convention center business increases.

And if there is a terrorist attack, we can covert it into a bomb shelter then too.
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"yes adam gave some informative comments but he also seems to sprinkle a little adam dust on it." - merkin

One might think that from your comment, Adam,

that you are willing to forego an extensive cost/benefit analysis with a blind faith in unsupported speculation about the potential of an expanded Convention Center to generate new businesses.

Thinking about the impact of a terrorist attack or other larger-scale events on a heavy investment in the Convention Center is not idle speculation: 9/11 and the tightening of corporate pursestrings after the dot-com stock market downturn had a pretty devastating impact on convention businesses, and I would question how much of a recovery has already taken place. Given that, now is very likely a bad time to invest further in convention-related development. A slowdown in the economy would have a heavy impact on non-essential spending such as attending conferences. Any good business investment should take into consideration vulnerability to various larger-scale events.

Try listening to the show: this guy did an extensive analysis, and from his comments, I see nothing to dispel my suspicion that we're essentially being sold a bill of goods on the basis of vague promises. Those promises in the past never lived up to expectations promoted by business communities and city governments.

What's clear is that a limited cross-section of stakeholders would directly benefit, some of whom would benefit independently of future developments (those who would benefit from the financial logistics and who would profit from the resulting contruction revenues), and that a limited cross-section of stakeholders currently have an disproportionate influence in the plans that are going down.

I have absolutely no problem

I have absolutely no problem with a cost analysis of any project. I extremely encourage them and wish our city would do more cost analysis and then actually act on the ones that show to be beneficial, but that is another topic ...

I just find the comment of "what about a terrorist attack" as an act of desperation in looking for a reason against. If that is the criteria we are going to go with, well, we may as well not invest money into a lot of things because a serious terrorist attack will hurt a lot of business across the board.

If the argument was within the range of rational business downturns and cycles, I would see no problem with it. Throwing terrorism in there just seems like a stretch. I mean heck, maybe we should expand the convention center because a terrorist attack might hit Las vegas so people that need to do conventions won't go to las vegas and will still be scared of NY, so they will flock to us.

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"yes adam gave some informative comments but he also seems to sprinkle a little adam dust on it." - merkin

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