At the end of the day, with some very real misgivings, but also with some hope for the future, I will be voting for Mike Nutter for Mayor.
In the end, with Dwight Evans, for whatever reason, falling so dramatically in the polls, I just cannot vote for him. Brady seems like a really good guy, but, I don’t think he would be as good a Mayor as Fattah or Nutter. And, Tom Knox…. well, we know how I feel about Tom Knox.
At the end of the day, I have been struggling for a long time with Nutter v. Fattah. It is a long post. But, below I explain why I am voting for Nutter, and not Fattah. Sorry for what are probably a ton of typos:
The Nutter fanaticism, where I ask basic questions of Nutter, and people go crazy, as if I am questioning the Messiah, brings out the contrarian in me, and instinctively makes me lean toward Fattah. It worries me that a politician who has made some bad decisions in the past, will not be told when he is doing something wrong. (In fact, I voted for Fattah, mostly for this reason, at Philly for Change.)
There is a lot to like about Fattah. A lot. He is a candidate actually campaigning on economic justice in Philadelphia. And, while people have criticized him for being stubborn… if there was going to be one issue to be stubborn about, it should be about achieving basic, real standards of living for every Philadelphian; and ripping the endless cycle of poverty to pieces.
Second, Fattah is thinking big. No matter what, I think that is a good step for Philadelphia. There are some problems with his airport plan, and there are some problems with the congestion tax idea. But both are now in the minds of the average person, and both could see the light of day at some point down the road. We need some big thinkers in this City.
Third, a lot of people that I admire are backing Fattah. Besides a Mr. Ray Murphy, there is AFCSME, SEIU, and a number of people that I think highly of. And, his staffers, a number of whom come on YPP, seem very talented.
Fourth, I just think Fattah seems like a pretty cool guy. I like that he came to the YPP party, and immediately started fighting with me about campaign finance. He wasn't politicking so much as he was trying to make a point. Beyond that, he just cracks me up.
And fifth, I have deep respect for a man who got a huge program to get kids into college through a Congress controlled by Newt Gingrich. That is an accomplishment that too many people have overlooked. It is a big, big, big friggin' deal.
Why not Fattah? First, and foremost, because I do not think he will win. I spent the last three days walking in neighborhoods that Fattah is relying on to win. And, while there were some signs of his campaign, there was very little excitement. Most of the people I talked to seem undecided, and given the polls, I just do not see it happening. I have been wrong before, and I could be wrong again, but, I do not see it.
Second, his style during the campaigns- where he would not answer questions, and just bring it back to poverty, is really a problem to me. I am sure he cares about all that stuff; he personally came here and answered right away when the planning controversy came out. But, that seems to have been a fairly frequent occurrence- him ignoring questions. So, I am with him on the poverty thing. But, you cannot do it without getting people to buy in, in a big way. And I think his non-answers to other questions made him seem like he didn’t care. True or not, I think that matters.
My other main criticism with Fattah is intermixed with personal stuff, so, take this with a grain of salt. I think, in a City of 1.5 million people, Fattah is way too concerned about placing people from his own camp all over the place, even when it does not make sense for the same lofty goals he sets out in his campaign. Let’s start with the obvious one for me: Fattah is effectively running the campaign of Cindy Bass for Council, against my dad. Cindy is fine. But, if you are concerned about ending generational poverty, and you look at the Bass and Ackelsberg resumes, and the work they have done for working class and the poor, there really is a very clear choice, and it is not his candidate. Similarly, Marian Tasco is one of the best Councilpeople we have, especially on issues for working people. But, Fattah is running a challenger against her too. Why? Because he wants his people there. I just cannot take that he seems to place more faith in his own organization than in people who have been kicking ass around the City for years.
Now, on to Mike Nutter…
What gives me pause about him? Well, to start, I think his economic plan, and his crime plan, are totally unrealistic. I don’t think you can cut business taxes, cap property tax increases, and be anywhere close to even. In fact, neither does the Tax Reform Commission. So, something will have to give there.
And, without getting too much into a Stop and Frisk debate, Nutter’s plan to declare a State of Emergency and enact curfews, etc., potentially may not even be within his power as Mayor. And, sorry, I don’t think Philadelphians in any neighborhood will take curfews lying down. It just will not happen. And, in appealing for the law an order types, his rhetoric has gotten ridiculous over the last few weeks.
What gives me hope?
Well, first of all, I think Nutter will open up Philadelphia government to new faces; to people who have long since checked out. I could be wrong, but I have a feeling that a lot of talented people will be working for him, and if nothing else, I think the image he projects, as a somewhat unconnected guy, who is really smart and knows government, and is not tied down to a ton of alliances, will help attract more good people into service.
Second, from everything I can tell, Nutter was a very good constituent person for the 4th District. Why does that matter? Because, his tax cuts be damned, I think Nutter understands the need for a City government that can provide real services. He was, from the stories I have heard from a number of people- generally very willing to listen to his constituents, and help them find solutions to their problems. It gives me some hope that, if he wins, he will similarly listen.
Third, I like government with less conflicts of interest, less corruption, and less pay-to-play. I think Nutter will bring that, and I think that will make the job of those who want to fight for economic justice have a generally easier time.
Fourth, I like that my lungs don’t hurt when I am in a bar. And I like that there is a police advisory commission.
Fifth, I think he is the candidate most likely to enact real changes in the basic structure of government; from Licenses and Inspections and Zoning, on down. To do that effectively would mean going a long way to making Philadelphia a better place. I like that he knows a lot about the City government.
And, most of all, as most readers know, I think Tom Knox is a serious danger to our City. I waited and waited on this decision, mostly because more than anything, I really think Knox will be bizarrely bad. And, to me, the guy who will stop him is Mike Nutter.
So, with both apprehension and hope, I am voting for Michael Nutter for Mayor.
Ah ha! So now we see that they were right all along
when they said you were shilling for Fattah..., oh wait, I guess not.
The problem with strategic voting based on polls is that sometimes polls are wrong.
True enough - however, there
True enough - however, there has to be a good reason that Knox's anti-Nutter flyers in certain areas promote Fattah as a second option (as in: "only Tom Knox and Chaka Fattah oppose stop-and-frisk.") Knox has enough money to know which way the wind's blowing.
Of course, in white neighborhoods, the flyers use the funny Street/Nutter photo as a serious piece of evidence to tie Nutter to Street. Whatever you think about Nutter, you can certainly say this: Tom Knox thinks we're morons.
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Volunteering for Michael Nutter
My Problem With Michael Nutter Is Stop And Frisk
In the interest of full disclosure, I'm supporting Bob Brady. In general, I think that Michael Nutter is a good and honerable man. However, I have a big problem with the fascist Stop and Frisk.
My brother was an investigator for the Public Defenders in the Denver area. They've recently started S&F in Denver and murders haven't stopped there. All it's done is scare the crap out of the black and Mexican minorities.
When I was sixteen, I was stopped by a policeman and hit with a night stick because I was running for an appointment on 14th street. He had no reason to do this as there was no other indication that anything nasty had happened. Let's see how you react once your kid comes home, after being wacked with a billy club. That's what Michael Nutter's Stop and Frisk program will ultimately cause. Of course the cop had to hit him, because the kid might've had a gun.
I don't want to do this to my neighbors.
If Nutter wins
Dan wrote: “that lot of talented people will be working for him, and if nothing else, I think the image he projects, as a somewhat unconnected guy, who is really smart and knows government, and is not tied down to a ton of alliances, will help attract more good people into service."
Everything in Nutter’s past suggests he will surround himself with talented, hard working people and will not be handing out jobs just to his supporters. He has the intellectual self-confidence to handle disagreement and to change course when necessary.
At a fundraiser last Fall back in the day when most people thought Nutter didn’t have a chance, he told his supporters to really pay attention to the council races, saying something like: “I don’t care if they support me or agree with me on all the issues; I want people who have done their homework and are focused on the issues. (Not his exact words of course, but I believe the gist of what he said)
To solve the problems facing this city, the next mayor must listen to a wide range of views. And Michael Nutter listens. I have seen him seek out people opposed to his ideas to hear their reasons. At one of the early fundraisers, two of my CCP colleagues had disagreements with some of his ideas—-in one case, it was about a plan to have shops in the main library which she thought might be a step towards privatization (Not what he had in mind). But he got her phone number and after days of telephone tag, they had a long conversation about her concerns. Another colleague had a concern with something Nutter said (I believe about employment opportunities for young black men) and again Nutter asked for my colleague’s contact info so he could talk further about his concerns. As Chris Rabb said:
“Nutter has been the only candidate I've interacted with who actually is interested in and actively decides to listen to people not already in their inner circles of influence.”
So I am confident, Nutter will reach out to a very broad circle and will bring in many of the talented young people (like many of those who post on this list) who want to make this city work for all our citizens.
Supporting Michael Nutter for Mayor
The Fattah to Nutter Break
Dan's reasons for voting for Nutter mirror those of Frank Robinson, from Germantown, posted in yesterday's Inquirer:
What scares me about what we know about the current polls is Knox. Knox took a hammering in debates and advertising, and his numbers are still at 20%. And now he has an honest-to-goodness, Philly-honed GOTV operation with his alliances with Local 98 and Jannie Blackwell. Any votes he might have lost from people who don't like those two groups he can more than make up with what those two organizations can give him on election day. We need every anti-Knox vote we can get.
Supporting Michael Nutter for Mayor.
Stop Knox; Vote Nutter
It's pretty simple at this point: all five candidates are polling this thing daily. If Fattah, Evans or Brady had hard numbers to show this as a tightening race, they'd be screaming it across the city.
They haven't; therefore, they don't.
This is a two-candidate race, and for supporters of the other three, it's time to figure out who's more worth supporting between Nutter and Knox, or who's so dangerous as to require stopping.
This has been a tough race for me -- I served on the Fattah for Mayor Exploratory Committee during 2006, and am very proud of the transparency & ethics agenda we helped create. I have friends deeply involved in his campaign who I like a great deal, and I've done what I can to advise them along the way. And I think that Congressman Fattah would make a great mayor, and I truly admire his decision to make his commitment to reducing poverty the centerpiece of his campaign.
But in a winner-take-all primary, we can't afford to waste votes. And I can't imagine it's just me who finds the prospects of a "Mayor Knox" a lot scarier than the differences between the other four candidates. Whether it was his taunting of the "do-gooder types" that pressured him out of payday lending, his deceitful race-and-religion based campaigning just the general arrogance and condescension the man gives off on a daily basis, Tom Knox is not fit to be the mayor of this city. He's running a campaign that seems to be built on the premise that as long as he can keep afford to printing lies and negativity, that's the way he'll win.
* * *
I first met Michael Nutter in 1993, when I was 21, and a senior in college in western Massachusetts. I was taking a course in Urban Politics over at Mt Holyoke, and wanted to do my term paper on Nutter's successful efforts to overturn Rendell's veto and establish the Police Advisory Commission. So I called his office to set up a meeting.
The day before Thanksgiving, Councilman Nutter sat down with me in his office for an hour to go over everything that had happened, in great detail. He could not have been more generous of his time, or with his candor -- and this for a random kid from the Northeast who cared about good government. (Thacher Longstreth, too, was great; Brian O'Neill's office, not so much.) I've admired Michael Nutter since then, and for pretty much all the reasons Dan states above, I think he'll be a hell of a great leader for this City of whom we can all be proud.
Vote Nutter.
Many Fattah voters are
Many Fattah voters are working multiple jobs and don't have the luxury to answer the phone, or simply not interrested in divulging their vote. If your rationale is truly that Nutter is the only one to stop Nutter and not that Fattah is supporting Bass, do not rely on the polls and your informal walk through neighborhoods. The electorate that votes Fattah (somewhat of a generalization) is low key and guarded with good reason. The GOTV for Fattah is reaching out to people off the radar in many cases. Your vote for Nutter will be a vote for Knox!!
Vote Fattah for social justice!
that's ridiculous
What would that say of the polls from six months ago -- you know, when Fattah was leading by a strong margin?
On the other end of the scale, young moneyed professionals who only have cell phones and no land lines -- who might be more of Nutter's base -- are equally under-reporting in poll-taking. And it's in the interests of the Fattah campaign to know where their supporters are and to be able to promote just how many they've found.
Might seem ridiculous to
Might seem ridiculous to you. However, those polls also did not reflect these same folks who keep their things close to their vest. That core is not reflected in any polls period!
Vote Fattah for social justice!
Well written
I just want to commend you on a well written opinion piece. I'm glad you're going for Nutter, but regardless of that, that pieces is a good examination of a thought process every informed voter at some point has to go through. I hope you and the rest of Nutter supporters have made the right choice.
just for the record...
And, sorry, I don’t think Philadelphians in any neighborhood will take curfews lying down.
well, actually there are curfews already, although they apply only to teenagers. still...
And I know for a fact many
And I know for a fact many people in my neighborhood are all for the S&F process.
And this was before a double murder several blocks north on 2600 Montgomery this morning.
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Staff member of Longacre for 5th Council District.
Longacre Website
Some observations on internal polling and "tactical voting"
First, I think that this has been a very articulate, well-written thread, where many points of view were put forward and were respected. So kudos to all of you on that score.
Second, perhaps some of these observations will be helpful to you, as we seek to understand what to expect when the numbers roll in...
Before I get started, however - I publish www.Campaignia.org, which is dedicated to the study and exploration of political campaigns. If you're interested in reading a reasonably complete transcript of the post-May 7 debate question/answer session with the media, I have posted it on my site - cut/paste this URL page into your web browser:
www.campaignia.org/6.html
I was able to briefly interview four of the five candidates (all but Fattah) and also Chris Matthews, and their comments are there.
Internal polling vs. independent polling
Unfortunately, genuinely independent polling is rare. The Keystone Poll is fantastic, but unfortunately, we won't see another version until after the election. We have to take their snapshot and extrapolate from it.
You can always tell who is really ahead or behind by observing the behavior of the various campaigns. The campaigns, because they have the resources to do so, do tracking polls constantly, and thus internally, they know a lot more about where everyone REALLY stands, than we do. But things can be inferred.
If someone is being attacked, it generally means that the candidate is ahead; conversely, a campaign which attacks is usually behind. Nutter did not begin to receive attacks until after the polling vaulted him into the lead. Knox's own internal polling is undoubtedly telling him two things:
a) among all voters, he's behind Nutter;
b) the only way for Knox to increase his vote total is at Brady's expense.
The attacks on Nutter are not so much to switch voters from Nutter to Knox (voters dislike negative campaigning), but rather to discourage ALL voters from voting for him, regardless of whom they switch to, or (as sometimes happens) they opt not to vote at all.
Conversely, it seems clear that the election is coming down to Knox vs. Anti-Knox. As long as Knox's four opponents' strengths were scattered, Knox was the front-runner. The problem for Knox is that someone (whether it was Nutter or any of the other three) was able to attract enough votes to surge ahead - and thus become the rallying point for the entire - and very diverse - anti-Knox coalition. The clear message from the free media, and from the polls, and from Knox's own negative attacks, are that the election has come down to Nutter or Knox - i.e., "if you're anti-Knox, you have to vote for Nutter." Brady's decision to release some of his support to Nutter in hopes of preventing Knox from winning is further evidence of this.
Since everyone is saying who they're volunteering/working for in this election - I can't vote in it, and I'm not affiliated - remotely - with any mayoral candidate's campaign, so I have the luxury of being able to just observe and throw in my two cents whenever I have something to contribute to the discussion.