PA Revenue Picture Brightens

By Michael Wood, PA Budget and Policy Center

Pennsylvania tax collections came in better than expected in March, lowering the state's total revenue shortfall for the current fiscal year. It was also the first March ever in which tax collections exceeded the $4 billion mark. 

With three months left in the 2011-12 fiscal year, the revenue shortfall stands at $387 million, much lower than the year-end revenue shortfall of $719 million estimated by the Corbett administration and built into his 2012-13 budget.

General Fund Revenue Shortfall

This should be welcome news as lawmakers move closer to negotiating a 2012-13 state budget. Improved collections may signal a less severe year-end shortfall, and that could help reduce some of the painful cuts proposed in the Governor's budget. Get the Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center's full revenue analysis here.

March is an important revenue month for a number of reasons. For one, almost half of corporate tax collections for the year were collected last month. And corporate taxes exceeded monthly estimates by $106 million, or nearly 5%, last month. This played a big role in creating a March revenue surplus of $95 million.

After the strong March collections, every major tax type now exceeds year-to-date tax collections this time last year. Taxes are now $583 million higher than they were at the end of March 2011 — a sign of the improving economy.

We're not out of the woods yet, but we appear to be headed in the right direction. March capped off a three-month pattern of improving tax collections (compared to estimates). April will be another pivotal month to monitor going into budget negotiations. Decent collections in April could mean fewer cuts to schools, colleges, and health care providers in the coming fiscal year.

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