As an Obama delegate candidate in Bob Brady's First Congressional District (Button 23, Second Column), I have been closely assessing the Obama campaign's role in the context of Philadelphia politics and Philadelphia history as I have been participating in it.
No campaign has ever had the potential for voter mobilization that this one has.
Ed Rendell set the recent record for driving up voter turunout when he got over 220,000 votes for Governor in 2002, beating Bob Casey by over 3 to 1.
Look for Obama to far exceed Rendell's total, and Clinton to far exceed Casey's total.
This race is going to change assumptions about Philadelphia voter apathy for years to come. It is going to show that if you give people a chance to vote for something meaningful, they will take it.
Philadelphia politics has all too often been, and been perceived as, a battle between parochial warring fiefdoms. The likely record high turnout in this Presidential primary should help in many ways to move Philadelphia more solidly into the 21st Century, and more in the direction of being a progressive force for meaningful change rather than just an agglomeration of feuding combatants.
The results of this primary will have effects for a long time to come. If you know people who are not certain about whether or not to vote, try to get them to change their minds. This will be an election people will be proud of having participated in for a long time to come.
Voter turnout
While I really hope that we see a good turnout in this primary, I'll be frankly shocked if more than 50% of eligible voters bother to show up. Granted, I don't recall ever seeing people this fired up about any primary election in the past, so that's one variable for which I cannot account. But, in general, Americans are too- what, bored? Stupid? Apathetic? Simply pathetic?- to bother getting off their ample posteriors to make their voices heard in political elections. Give them something irrelevant + stupid like American Idol- the world's biggest karaoke contest- and they'll vote like mad (bread + circuses, anyone?). But give them a chance to really matter, and they've come up *really* short in the past half-century or so.
I'm just observing history,
-Z
Are you still sorry we didn't move the primary, Mark?
You didn't think, did you, that no one would remind you that you said the Pennsylvania primary would be irrelevant and harshly criticized those who opposed moving it to February?
Some of those same folks who didn't want to move the primary said that it might turn out to be relevant after all.
I hope you are right about high turnout changing the nature of Philly politics. Maybe it will help Tony Payton and Anne Dicker or Larry Farnese and Vanessa Brown and Byron Davis. It is too bad, though, that we didn't have more progressive candidates taking advantage of the moment to run against some of the deadwood.
How do we keep up the turnout in future elections?
Early Primaries Are More Reliably Relevant
Early primaries are more reliably relevant.
There has never been an irrelevant New Hampshire primary, for instance. But, in 2008, Republicans can vote for or against John McCain after he clinched the nominaiton.
But, in 2004, people got to vote for or against Kerry in Pennsylvania after he had clinched the Democratic nomination.
In 2000, people got to vote for or against Gore in Pennsylvania after he had clinched the Democratic nomination and for or against Bush after he had clinched the Republican nomination.
In 1996, Bill Clinton ran unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Republicans got to vote for Bush after he had clinched the Republicans nomination.
In 1992, Democrats got to vote for or against Clinton after he had clinched the Democratic nomination, and for or against Bush after he had clinched the Republican nomination.
Both Walter Mondale in 1984 and Michael Dukakis in 1988 had virtually clinched the Democratic nomination, although they had not mathematically reached the magic numbers, at the time of the Pennsylvania primaries.
The last Pennsylvania primary where there was any real doubt as to whom the Democratic nominee would be was in 1980, where Ted Kennedy narrowly beat frontrunner Jimmy Carter and kept his chances alive.
One meaningfully contested Democratic primary every 28 years is not a very good record for a state to have. While I eagerly look forward to the 2036 Democratic primary, I respectfully suggest that there would be a lot more activism in Pennsylvania in both political parties if people reliably knew that there would be meaningful contests for the party nominations.
And even this primary is one of limited choices: in addition to McCain having clinched the Republican nomination, Democrats John Edwards, Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd, Joe Biden, and Mike Gravel and Dennis Kucinich have already been eliminated. From the posts on Young Philly Politics during the earlier primaries, it was clear that many people in this community were vitally interested in Edwards and Kucinich.
If we want continuous public participation, we should strive to increase the continuity of reliable availability of meaningful choices.
PA is not going to be NH
Unless the rule dramatically change, we are not going to go first or second. So if we move the PA primary up, we will wind up one of 5, 10, or 20 states in one of the first three weeks in February. Our voice will not be hear above the din. So Pennsylvanians might have greater influence every few elections with an April primary than it will every election with a February primary.
Early Primary Comments
My polling place was moved this spring and no one knew about it in my neighborhood until last night. I was looking at last week's Daily Record and yesterdays Daily News and saw that our location had changed. In addition to all the campaign lit stuffed in my door, a plain white flyer announcing the change was included. Like most people, I toss these in the recycle bin (or somewhere else where they're not read) so I was then text-messaging and talking with any neighbor I saw between 9 and 11.
I still think its funny that the "Official Democratic Ballot," as peddled by the Democratic County Executive Committee, is still handed out just outside or just inside of our polling place. I made a call to 70 to inform them.
By 7:20, we had almost 20 people in the books and I directed 5 more of my neighbors to the new polling place. Last year, Only 60-70 democrats voted in our district. I think we will far exceed that this year!
Obama 2008
Oddball Superdelegate Question:
So on my commute in to center city, I pondered that if the Philly Dem Committee sent that flyer around, by default doesn't that mean that Bob Brady is somehow endorsing Obama (since that who is listed on their "Official" Ballot)?
Obama 2008
Brady Will Back the Winner In His Congressional District
Bob Brady has publicly pledged and told both candidates that he will back the winner in his Congressional District, which is virtually certain to be Obama.
The Democratic City Committee made up ballots with Obama and Obama delegate candidates on it, and ballots with Clinton and Clinton delegate candidates on it. The wardleaders decided which of the ballots they wanted to distribute.
At the end of today's primary, Obama should be somewhere around 300 delegate votes away from clinching the Democratic nomination.
Counterpoint
My wife was very angry to hear this. She says that, if Brady already pledged his support to Clinton, he shouldn't go back on his word.
The question is, obviously, whether or not Brady ever *did* pledge his support to Clinton. I'm under the impression that he did.
-Z
Brady Has Never Been Listed As A Clinton Supporter
Brady has never been listed on any list of superdelegates as a Clinton supporter. I am sure, though, that he has had warm conversations--he is a very friendly guy--with both Clinton and Obama.
He has been one of a large number of superdelegates who have sought to wait until they have adequate feedback before making a decision.
Brady has decided that he will go along with a majority of his district; because there is little doubt as to how his district will go, that pretty much translates into a pledge for Obama.
The Associated Press and other delegate counters will not count Brady in the Obama column until after the votes by Congressional District are listed.
When will Brady announce he is an Obama delegate?
Rep. Cohen (or anyone else),
Do you have any insight? I think he should do it ASAP, since he already said he would.
http://www.philly.com/dailynews/local/20080423_Clinton_now_needs_to_sway_second_set_of_Pennsylvanians.html