In June, there were 43,600 people officially unemployed in Philadelphia County. At 7% the unemployment rate in Philadelphia is now a full percentage point higher than in June of last year. As the U.S. economy goes so goes Philadelphia’s economy so the news that U.S. growth in GDP during the 2nd quarter came in slower than expected despite the economic stimulus is a worrisome development.

On Tuesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve will meet to set the federal funds rate. One of the current voting members of the FOMC is Charles Plosser the President of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve.

Plosser has called for the FOMC to “act preemptively” and begin raising the federal funds rate to slow the economy because he is concerned about containing inflation.

He believes that inflation is already too high and fears that unless the FOMC acts to raise unemployment further, wages will begin to rise in response to recent spikes in food and energy prices. Rising wages would in turn set off a new round of price increases and lead to a wage-price spiral.

There is one huge problem with Plosser's view, there is no evidence that wages are beginning to accelerate, to the contrary wages in recent months are growing more slowly which is precisely what you would expect when employment is falling. It is important to remember that wages are sticky and therefore don’t quickly adjust to current labor market conditions so Plosser could be worried that recent spikes in food and energy prices will show up in wages a year from now. But here again the problem is that an economic expansion just ended in which wages and incomes for all but the wealthiest failed to keep pace with the growth in prices. Indeed in the last two and half decades the only time there has been sustained and broadly shared wage growth was when unemployment rates reached historic lows in the late 1990s.

In a recent speech Plosser responded to this kind of criticism with the following argument:

“In recent months I have heard some analysts suggest that the current economic situation is not like the 1970s because unions are less prevalent and there is no evidence as yet of a wage-price spiral. Thus, a weak economy, with rising unemployment and declining payroll employment, will presumably prevent workers from demanding higher wages. But, again, that story has things backwards. It is not demands for higher wages that kick off the spiral, but the loss of confidence that the central bank will keep inflation controlled, which, in turn, leads to a rise in inflation expectations. The wage-price spiral is not the cause of the inflation, but the result. This means that if monetary policymakers wait until they see the evidence of a wage-price spiral, they will be too late — the public will have lost confidence in the Fed’s ability to keep inflation under control, and this will make the job of bringing inflation down much more costly and difficult.”

As Paul Krugman has explained Plosser is of the view that wage growth is influenced by the growth in consumer prices. So in his view if the central bank signals it will do nothing about rising prices, workers will demand from their employers wage increases that match or beat the rise in inflation which is the first step in a wage-price spiral.

The alternative view is that wage growth is shaped by trends in the labor market. This means that spikes in commodity prices will not translate into rising wages. It is of note that most workers nationwide and in Philadelphia have lost ground against inflation not in just the last six months but in the last six years.

Of course this is not an academic exercise, Plosser is aggressively advocating taking steps that would slow the economy and push unemployment higher in Philadelphia. He is doing this even as most economic indicators are signaling a worsening rather than improving economic situation.

Is it too much to ask that such a policy stance require more than a gut feeling? There is no evidence that inflation in food and energy prices has begun to seep into other prices in the economy. The economic and social costs of unemployment especially in a city like Philadelphia are substantial and should have significantly more weight than the fear that inflation might–someday–maybe–perhaps accelerate.

--Mark Price