Some musings.

In case folks didn't look at Price's post of yesterday (which I hope will be promoted to the front page), I hope you do so now. The interesting stats he put up show a very disturbing trend over the past five or so decades, and lead to a disturbing conclusion as to what may happen during the next four, or eight, or sixteen years if we don't focus our energies.

In the past decades, the percentage of people living in poverty in this City has increased. Largely, (as Price's stats show), this has happened because folks with money have moved out in greater numbers than those who have less; the concentration of poverty has increased although the number of poor people has remained constant.

And so, I wonder what will the City look like in four, or eight years, or sixteen years hence. Will Philadelphia be a more vibrant place? Better museums, better clubs, better restaurants? More people on the streets strolling and shopping? A well-conceived plan for the Waterfront put in place and initiated?

Maybe the value of my house will have increased as the nicer areas of Germantown - with their large and elaborate houses in close proximity to a thriving urban hub - become a stronger attraction for more people with more money. Maybe lower parts of Germantown Avenue - reflective increased investment in any number of business corridors in other parts of the City - will have a Starbucks or a Gap or a cute independent coffee shop with overstuffed chairs and organic fair-trade coffee. Maybe another high rise will be erected in Center City, filled with offices and concentrated retail space. Maybe the expansion of Center City will transform even more areas of ghetto. And maybe, as more people with money move into the City, the percentages of people living in poverty will have decreased.

I'll have more money to spend (because my taxes will have decreased) in more stores nearby (because the cost of doing business will have decreased) in cleaner neighborhoods (because city services will have improved due to less patronage, less pay-to-play, higher tax revenues from more spending in more stores).

Maybe the horrible murder rates will have decreased, due to more aggressive law enforcement. More beat cops and fewer broken windows. Homeless people will not be allowed to disrupt the smooth commerce that will bring in more tax revenue.

Philly will become more like those east coast cities that look so nice by contrast, New York and Boston. It will just simply be a nicer place to live.

But perhaps, as all this is happening, even as all of these positive changes take place, the number of people living in poverty will remain unchanged.

And what will people be saying about Mayor Nutter? Will they say that he was a great mayor? Will they say that his policies vindicated a trickle-down view of the economy? Will they say that his policies proved wrong the failed ideas of the sixties about how to fight poverty? More exciting City. Lower percentage of people living in poverty. Less violence. Lower tax burden. What's not to like?

Still, I am absolulely convinced (and think can be rather convincingly proven -- despite the claims of some that education is not the main variable affecting poverty rates), the ONLY way that there will be fewer people (in absolute terms) living in poverty in this city in the future, as opposed to a lower percentage of people living in poverty, is if there are fewer people that fail to graduate high school, and fewer people that fail to attend and graduate from college. The only way that will happen is if our schools improve, and if a higher percentage of those living in poverty take advantage of the benefits of a better education, and if people have more help with the economics of acquiring a college degree. The only way that will happen is if our public schools are improved and if the network of education-related services and programs are expanded and have better outreach in poorer communities. And the only way that's going to happen is with increased investment.

I have hope that Michael Nutter will have a clue about how to improve our public schools (although to me, the most intelligent thing I heard said by any of the candidates was ironically said by Tom Knox, when he said that he would hire an educator, and not a bean counter, as the new head of Philly public schools). Indeed, more than hoping that Nutter can lead us to dramatically improved schools in four or eight years, I hope that he will develop a long-term plan for improving our schools and will initiate that plan.

Without falling into the traps of false dichotomies, without simplifying complex economic issues, without either/or, fixed-size pie, or zero sum gain, without demonizing Nutter or idealizing the difficulties of addressing poverty, my question is how do we at YPP, as a community, if we indeed are a community, successfully advocate for those people who will be living in poverty in four, or eight, or sixteen years?

Despite Nutter's rather large win, despite the fact that he won so many of the wards, despite that in the end he won support from a relatively large percentage of African American voters, it is a fact that given the participation rates, Michael Nutter received votes from a relatively small percentage of poor Philadelphians; not because they voted for another candidate, but because they don't have any confidence that any politician is really going to focus on their welfare. I hope that all the folks at YPP will (continue to?) reach out to disaffected Philadelphians to help Michael Nutter prove that he is a politician that is concerned about all constituencies in the City.

If there's one thing that I think "progressives" might have learned from the election it's that they and YPP, are, in balance, fairly isolated communities. So I hope that much post-election discussion will center on how to create greater unity with other constituencies in our City.