Why I hope Joe Sestak- or Torsella- Runs: Because I Believe in Stuff

As Glen Greenwald notes, this is Arlen Specter's voting record:

There is a good reason Arlen Specter has been a Republican for nearly 44 years: he affirms most of the defining beliefs of that party....

Consider Arlen Specter’s most significant votes over the last eight years, ones cast in favor of such definitive right-wing measures as: the war on Iraq, the Military Commissions Act, Patriot Act renewal, confirmation of virtually every controversial Bush appointee, retroactive telecom immunity, warrantless eavesdropping expansions, and Bush tax cuts (several times).

This year alone, he has taken the Republican lead in opposing the pro-union employee free choice legislation and investigations into allegations of Bush administration crimes. That he was one of three Republican votes to support President Obama’s stimulus package does not negate the truth that time and again during the Bush era, Mr. Specter stood with Republicans on the most controversial and consequential issues.

Now, I don't expect Sen. Specter to make some big mea culpa. And judging by a news conference he gave, he has no plans to. Hell, he just said he plans to still oppose Dawn Johnsen as the head of the Office of Legal Counsel. (For those who don't know, Johnsen is amazing, and is languishing because she is a 'radical' who dares to be openly pro-choice.)

So, I welcome Arlen. I am sincerely glad he came, further proving that the PA GOP is a party of the far-right wing. But, we truly need a debate in PA about what the Democratic party stands for. To me, it sure isn't something close to Arlen Specter's voting record. That is why I really hope someone like Joe Sestak runs. (Or, Joe Torsella, who I know nothing about.)

If Specter's views 'evolve' now that he is free of the PA GOP, that too will be noted.

By the way, whoever wins will crush Pat Toomey. Bank on that.

Torsella not out....

Color me surprised, given his connections to Rendell.

I decided to run for the United States Senate from Pennsylvania for one simple reason: I believe we need new leadership, new ideas, and new approaches in Washington. It’s become obvious that the old ways of doing business might have worked for the special interests, but they haven’t worked for the rest of us.

Nothing about today’s news regarding Senator Specter changes that, or my intention to run for the Democratic nomination to the Senate in 2010 - an election that is still a full year away.

I hope Sestak still joins

I absolutely hope Sestak still runs. Very simply put, the age of interventionism needs to die out, and anybody as hawkish as Specter needs to be out of Congress. Sestak has also proven to be dedicated t preserve civil liberties. And while he still falls a bit short to Arlen's war chest, he has the money to compete.

Very interesting to see who would win over the Philadelphia area with Sestak, Torsella, and Arlen.

Personal integrity matters in the Age of Obama

and if you've flip flopped for most of your political career, you might seem out of touch with PA voters who five months ago turned out in record numbers to choose a younger, less compromised candidate over an older, historically janus-like candidate.

Now, I'm glad the president welcomed Arlen. I welcome him too.

Welcome back, Arlen. Philly For Change Meetups are first Wednesdays at 7 at Tritone, 1508 South Street. I've heard you're a gin drinker; I like my Sapphire with tonic.

Every Philly Dem in this year's major primaries showed up, btw.

But after the prodigal son's coming home party dies down, we should turn a cold eye and ask, "Why should I vote for Specter in the primary?"

Because he'll beat Pat Toomey? Joe Sestak would beat Pat Toomey today, and he's never spent a minute or a dollar campaigning statewide in his life.

The only Democrat Toomey has a strong argument against is Specter, as the flip-flop thing is never pretty. I'm not suggesting Toomey would beat Specter in the general, nor am I suggesting that I'd withhold my vote if Specter were the Dem.

I'm just saying that this is just one chapter in a saga that could and should go on.

I'm also suggesting that if Sestak and Torsella have time to mount statewide campaigns, it will be interesting to see who polls best against Toomey at this time next year.

Heck, it'll be interesting next year just to see if PA Dem primary voters really would prefer Specter to Sestak or Torsella.

I mean, that poll a few months ago suggests Specter probably wouldn't beat Chris Matthews in a Democratic primary (though I'm not trying to encourage anybody). It was neck-and-neck in the general, suggesting PA Dems probably already preferred Matthews.

Eventually, PA voters are likely to catch on to the fact that one thing about Specter's desperate act is that it reveals him to be, um, desperate.

Desperate is not often a good look for a candidate.

And PA Dems don't need Specter to beat Toomey. The Dems can beat Toomey very well without him.

It is Specter who needs us to hold onto his seat in the U.S.'s most exclusive political club.

Let's see him work as a Democrat in order to win a Democratic primary.

Let's remember we have other options.

i for one could never support specter

i don't care if he stuck a D on the end of his name. Greenwald hits the nail on the head: the man has voted for some of the worst excesses of the past 8 years. and let us not forget that Specter supported the repeal of habeas corpus, when he voted for the Military Commissions Acty of 2006, the day after he was on the floor of the senate railing that the bill was "unconstitutional on its face".

and spam rejected me a third time, with no captcha, so i will break this into two parts.

i for one could never support specter part 2

And let's not forget that specter held the chair of veterans affairs since the 1980s, yet somehow never noticed what was going down at walter reed. Funny how that happens.

also funny is that the YPP spam filter doesn't want me to post any links. no links, I get a captcha. with links, my posts are spam. can someone fix this? Why does it hate me?

On Facebook? Join "Keep Specter Honest" Group

http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=97266235428&ref=nf

(OK, someone already questioned calling it "Keep" Specter Honest, but I had to call it something to get started :-)

Arlen & the future

While I am ecstatic to get the 60th vote, be careful what you wish for. If assuming Arlen wins reelection it becomes vital to get a Democratic Governor who might be naming his successor

You're right, Lou

We should focus on the governor's race, where Tom Corbett or Patrick Meehan will be tough to beat.

Let's take the senate primary one step at a time. Just because Specter needs us doesn't mean that we need him.

His party turned away from him and fated him for a primary loss. I'm happy the Vice President reached out to him, and it's good that Specter's serving out his term with our team; but that doesn't mean our team has to turn to him in a competitive primary in 2010.

I think Specter's move is more out of electoral desperation than out of philosophical kinship.

Sure, he's a great campaigner and a smart guy, but he's not the only one.

We may yet have more progressive and more reliable Democrats who can still be counted on to beat Toomey.

Let's wait and see.

EFCA

At this point the only thing I care about from Specter is will he vote to end cloture and vote yes on the Employee Free Choice Act. If yes I will support him, if No then I will not, no matter what Obama, Rendell, Casey or Biden want,

b/t/w "Obama" still comes up as misspelled when you type.

Let's start with EFCA

That's test number one, and he needs to pass it.

There will be others.

I don't mean to get cute, but let's see who gets in the race.

total desperation

i was talking to someone about this just last night.

specter's move is nothing like the Jim jeffords jump. When Jeffords quit, it was during the party's ascendance. It took actual courage and was based on real principles.

and now specter has the nerve to say he's going to rein in presidential abuses and re-open wiretap cases? Dude, where were your principles, 8,7,6,5,4,3,2, and 1 year ago?

not impressed. he comes off as desperate (and a carpetbagger)

Reading between the lines

An observation and a prediction based on stuff I’ve read about the good news/mixed news of Specter’s switch.

Observation:

The switch was 100% political, resulting from the fact that Specter was facing primary defeat and not really from anything else, but Specter and the White House – likely for mutually beneficial reasons – are trying to portray it as more philosophical or resulting from the Vice-President’s lobbying.

Compare:

Specter, 79, cast his move as one of principle.

and

"As the Republican Party has moved farther and farther to the right, I have found myself increasingly at odds with the Republican philosophy and more in line with the philosophy of the Democratic Party," Specter said.

From Tom Fitzgerald’s switch announcement article yesterday to this from an AP report today

One senior White House official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because discussions were private, said Biden and Specter have talked in person or by phone once a week since Obama was sworn into office but switching parties didn't always come up. The official said Biden did not find out that Specter was leaving the GOP until the senator told the vice president Tuesday morning.


and

Another senior White House official said Obama was surprised to learn of Specter's decision. The official said Specter's switch was not the product of a long negotiation with the White House and was not part of a quid pro quo in which Obama officials brokered a deal of any sort.

Specter benefits by looking virtuous. Obama benefits from a new Democrat in the Senate, one who likely is more reliant on the president’s support for political survival than most, and who is thus – for everyone’s dissembling otherwise – more likely than not to support the president on tough votes.

The president further benefits from Specter’s “philosophical” angle because it fits with his narrative (a good one because it’s true) that the Republican party’s positions are less principled than his.

This fits with my prediction: Specter will find a way to support EFCA.

I conclude this from Andy Stern’s warm welcome to Specter cited by Todd Beeton on MyDD in his article about Specter and EFCA.

If Stern and AFL-CIO’s Bill Samuel are so elated with Specter, and Harry Reid is already saying “There may be another iteration of card-checking coming along,” as he told The Hill (qtd by Beeton), then a likely scenario emerges.

The EFCA card-checking wording will get changed in some negligible way, so that Specter can “philosophically” justify flip-flopping back to a "yes" vote for EFCA, a position that he will really be taking out of political necessity now that he will have to run in a Democratic primary.

I can attest from my work with the Peace Action lobby that Specter has made a habit of just this kind of “philosophical” posturing when he needs to justify flip-flopping on issues out of political necessity or opportunism.

To which I'd add, GOOD, as long as the change is negligible.

And as long as all good Democrats remember that, even if Specter ends up supporting EFCA, we are likely only going to be able to count on his vote for as long as the political winds blow in Obama's direction.

As I pointed out yesterday to my labor friends

Specter left himself wiggle room on EFCA. He said, first, that he didn't think it was a good idea in the middle of a recession. OK, so we push the start date back six months or a year when the recession should be ending. No big deal. Its going to take labor six months to gear up to to take advantage of EFCA anyway.

And there are all sorts of small ways to modify the bill and call it new.

As to the last point, most politicians take into account political winds. Specter may have had to do so more than most given that he is genuinely a moderate in an increasingly conservative party. But all so so as that's how they stay in office.

Its our job to keep the winds blowing harder from the left. I think that's a far better use of our time than trying to encourage a candidate to run from the left (and lose) against Specter from in a Democratic primary.

Agreed. He has room. But,

Agreed. He has room. But, this will all depend on how Arlen acts. If he does anything high profile against Obama, I doubt Obama will be cutting TV commercials for him, no matter what he says now.

And the primary ads wouldn't take a genius to put together: His history of anti-choice judges, treatment of Anita Hill, voting for the Patriot Act, Bush tax cuts, the Iraq War. (How about cutting funds for pandemic flu preparedness in the stimulus? Oops.)

Just because Rendell and Obama back him, doesn't necessarily mean the Dem primary electorate would vote to support the most conservative Democrat in the Senate.

Someone with enough money to go on tv- and Sestak already has a good start, but others could raise it too- could give him a really good challenge.

We should support the best Democrat who can beat Toomey

simple as that.

If Sestak or someone else raises enough money to be viable, we should weigh them against Specter and act accordingly.

Dan's right. Specter has 44 years of easy soundbites to use against him in a Democratic primary, available to anyone with the resources to get them on the air.

Plus, the threat of a primary challenge likely will force Specter to huddle closer to the president than he might otherwise.

Let the challengers step forward, I say.

In other words

challenging Specter from the left in the primary is a good way to keep the winds blowing from the left.

That's how it worked when he was challenged from the right when he was a Republican. He responded by tossing the right a few votes he probably wouldn't have thrown them otherwise.

As a strategy for Dems, it has the added feature of possibly replacing Specter with someone better.

agreed 100%

having a primary opponent will indeed force specter to move left on some issues.

I think its very clear some deals were made: let's see how well our new Spineless Opportunist keeps up his end of the deal.

i think, like marc, he'll find a way to support EFCA. And i think he's probably agreed to support health care and judges.

Maybe that's right

There are certainly circumstances in which the threat of candidate to the left of an incumbent entering the race would keep the incumbent moving in that direction.

I was not actually thinking of someone with a high profile like Sestak entering the race--since that I think it is very unlikely that he will do so--but of a low profile leftist version of Toomey like Chuck Pennachio doing so, which would not have any useful effect on anything.

But you are right, a challenge from the left by a high stature candidate would e a very different thing.

I said this to Adam

I think the question comes down to ambition, and how much someone is willing to take in pressure from the Governor, the Mayor, the President, etc.

If Allyson Schwartz saw this as a golden moment, and her last, best, realistic shot to be a Senator, would she jump on it, party be damned?

Does Sestak particularly care what the party wants, unless he is offered specific promises?

Etc etc etc.

I hope someone who doesn't have an awful voting record like Arlen, at least keeps the option open until we see where he is going. The idea that the general election will likely be a GOP primary is kind of annoying.

Exactly

For PA's first senate race since Obama proved a center left Democrat can win even Chester County, we ought to hold out hope for at least one candidate who didn't run as a Republican in 2004.

Sestak mulling

Ok I'm using this quote because it drops the name of my old (but second) hometown:

“While the political establishment in Washington may support him, the determination has to be made by the fellow sitting in a diner in Upper Darby,” Sestak said. “Is this the gentleman who has the right leadership to shape the Democratic Party when (he has) had a pretty tough dialogue with his base and didn’t shape that party?”

For the record, there are no diners in Upper Darby that this fella hasn't sat in, at least once.

That's from an article in The Hill where Sestak gives Specter a few weeks to prove himself, but expresses general skepticism. The theme of Sestak's skepticism re: Specter's leadership is expanded upon in a a TPM article based on similar material where Sestak almost sounds like he's testing a campaign theme:

This shows the principle rule of politics: tomorrow is always another day -- as today was. This may be good for Arlen, politically; however, two key questions need to be answered. First, after 31 years in the military, I learned that you run for something, not against someone. Arlen has made a decision to leave a race because he could not win against someone. What needs to be known is what he is running for. Second, I watched then-Gov. Clinton and then-Sen. Obama take a leadership position in the Democratic Party and shape it. The leadership that would have been most impressive would be if Arlen had used his role to reshape the Republican Party that he said he had entered when it was a 'big tent,' but now is leaving because it has gotten too small. In short, I believe that the principles of what he is running for and his commitment to accountable leadership are questions that still need to be addressed.

Finally, appropriate for this strange bedfellows week, last words to Fox News:

Sestak expressed some concern that Specter’s decision to abandon the GOP came after consultation between the senator and the Senate Democratic leadership. Sestak noted that Pennsylvania was left out of the equation.

“Washington should have input. But we’re not asking Washington to dictate,” Sestak said. “At the end of the day, that decision is not Washington’s.”

Sestak is a retired Navy Vice-Admiral and is the highest ranking former military officer ever elected to Congress. He’s suggested that Specter’s decision to morph into a Democrat was based on political opportunism.

“It was exciting yesterday,” Sestak said of Specter’s switch. “But tomorrow doesn’t mean it’s determined by today.”

Sounds like a guy who hasn't ruled out a run yet, don't you think?

Toomey won't be their nominee.

The GOP Establishment is already looking for a replacement -- Gerlach, Scarnati, Pileggi have expressed openness to it, but Tom Ridge is the one they want.

Don't you think the base,

Don't you think the base, the one that Specter feared, would support him over most of these guys, save Ridge?

actually, no.

I think they hate Specter more than they like Toomey, and would be open to other pro-life, anti-tax candidates.

that's not what the poll suggests

Rasmussen participants had a choice of Specter, Toomey, Some Other Candidate and Undecided.

The results were:

30% Specter

51% Toomey

9% Some other candidate

10% Not sure

Further, Toomey was viewed favorably by 66%. While Specter was viewed favorably by only 42%, that still suggests that it's not just anti-Specter feelings that is fueling Toomey's popularity.

On the contrary, Specter was viewed more favorably than he was supported; that means that some of Toomey's supporters also like Specter.

They just like Toomey better.

However you read it, 51% support for a non-incumbent in a poll that includes Not Sure is huge.

Here's the link.

Well, if the GOP establishment could

pick a primary winner by fiat, I get the feeling we'd have one fewer Democratic senators in PA.

It may be that moderate Gerlach and never-run-statewide-before Scarnati and Pileggi can do what moderate incumbent Specter could not do: namely, make the right wing fringe love Pat Toomey less, and convince the 50.1% of the party that voted against Toomey in 04 to come home again.

But I doubt it. None of those guys seems like they'd have any better luck against Toomey than Specter did.

Ridge certainly has more potential as a game changer. His candidacy potentially could have ripple effects in a Democratic primary, but I'm not sure whether they'd end up helping or hurting Specter.

On the one hand, if next year Specter still has the best numbers of any Democrat (odd to type that) and Ridge proved as popular as he once was, Specter could make the argument that he is the only Democrat who can beat the former Homeland Security chief; on the other hand, it seems likely that the best offense against Ridge is to link him to W as often as you can.

If that were so, would we really want a Democrat who is in so many videos with W?

I think, in general, we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves. It may be that we Democrats will end up needing Specter in next year's general more than it appears that we do now.

Let's wait and see who ends on both parties primary ballots before we coronate anyone.

Sam has interesting points

I doubt Toomey will roll over for anyone at this point. Running Club for Growth has helped his fundraising immensely, no doubt. I don't think even in the "fall in line" GOP they have enough to give Toomey for him to step aside for another saner - what he considers a RINO - moderate.

If some GOP establishment likes thier chances better with someone less looney than Toomey they will have to beat him outright and right now he's tasted blood in the water for any primary battle. I think he fights and wins narrowly against anyone other than Ridge.
-Sean
MrLuigi, my cat, actually only types half as badly as I do.

Sestak isn't going anywhere

If Sestak runs for Senate, he will be lucky to get the endorsement of the counties in his own district. He's not a team player. He's a terrible 'party' Democrat who ran as an anti-war candidate but then voted to give Bush a blank check. He voted to fund Cheney's office, engage in warrantless wiretaps, and give telecoms immunity.

He shot himself in the foot with Obama when he campaigned for Hillary. Joe was right there when she elevated McCain over Obama as who was ready to lead. Obama is going to support Specter.
Unless Arlen drops dead (or killed by the GOP), Sestak is stuck in the 7th district like a fly in amber.

Not stuck for any of those reasons except maybe one

Sestak may run, and he may not, and while I agree with the political positions reflected in your post, I respectfully have to disagree with your conclusion.

I wish we lived in a state (or a country or a world, for that matter) where voting with majorities on wiretaps and funding Cheney's office were as politically disadvantageous as you suggest, but we don't.

As you know, if Specter is reelected, we'll get another six years of a politician who has taken exactly those positions.

Your blog suggests you're very aware of Sestak's strengths and shortcomings from an up close Delco perspective (while we're on the subject, dude, why can't Greg Vitale find a likely successor for State House and finally run for State Senate, where the Dems NEED seats?). Most people here can empathize with being frustrated by moderate Democrats.

But what's relevant in this discussion is Sestak's version of moderate Democrat versus Specter's, and who could win a Democratic primary.

And the one reason you raise that I think is relevant to Sestak's chances is the president; but even there I'm pretty sure you are overstating his vindictiveness. I don't recall many cases of Clinton supporters getting punished the way you suggest Sestak would. That doesn't fit the president's m.o., particularly considering his choice for Secretary of State.

He said he'd campaign for Specter, and I believe he will. The nature of his campaigning is the issue. It could be a contractual obligation photo-op kind of thing, which might not matter that much, or it could be real stumping for Specter.

Under no circumstances can I imagine Obama's going negative and criticizing another Democrat in the race, particularly a member of Congress.

We'll see what it is. I very much suspect that Specter's Senate performance in between now and then likely will determine the extent and enthusiasm of the president's support.

His support will have an affect on Sestak and perhaps on his fundraising capability.

But he's never faltered there before, his funding base is different from the president's both in the state and out, and moderate though he is, he seems at first glance preferable to a guy who's been a Republican for more than 40 years.

Specter's flip

I also think that this makes Pat Meehan's (with his shared Arlen history)
run for gov as a republican DOA.

This is an interesting wrinkle.

And it does seem to hurt Meehan a lot. Dude's been waiting along time however. Nothing short of PA Supreme Court is likely to get him to step aside entirely. Don't think being handed Corbet's current job will be enough.

Both parties, both Senate and Gov races, should have sparks aplenty.
-Sean
MrLuigi, my cat, actually only types half as badly as I do.

Wrinkle

This is the law of unintended consequences at work. Wagner benifits from a Meehan-Corbett fist fight and unless there is a District Court seat deal( unlikely) for Meehen, he is left practicing law on the outside.
Either Wagner or Ornarato need somone from out here and I guess that makes Saeidel the lt Gov.
On the Dem side of the Senate race the contenders are going to run hoping on the bad health of Arlen.
This is going to get the whole bowl of politcal jello wriggiling for a while.

Not to be a broken record

but the Democrats could use a bigger and better name in the governor's race next year.

We likely need -- and some of us definitely want -- someone with a little more going for him or her than The Other Jack Wagner, if we're going to beat Tom Corbett.

One way Democratic Senator Specter might show a little of the leadership that Representative Sestak and others have found him wanting is by getting behind, and pledging to fundraise for, just such a better Democrat.

Isn't there someone out there who might placate the folks on the party's ascendant left who may share Sestak's perspective?

Josh Shapiro or Allyson Schwartz might fit that bill, since both are now officially not running for Senate next year.

allyson schwartz is left?

coulda fooled me, what with all the blue doggery.

All measurements are relative

to the size and placement of the fish in the pool.

Don Cunningham is a great candidate for Governor

I haven't had the time to blog about this at lenght yet, but I will in more detail soon.

I've met Don Cunningham, the County Executive of Lehigh County a few times in the course of the health care campaign and was realy impressed with him. So I invited him to meet a group of progressives of various stripes a week or so ago.

Of the twenty or so people there, pretty much everyone came away impressed with him. He has a very strong record on economic issues, on social issues and on labor issues. He's a good speaker and, considering the primary is 13 months away, he konws the issues well.

And he used to be a journalist!

Cunningham is a pretty good guy.

ABO
Anyone But Onorato

Joshua Vincent
www.urbantools.org
www.ourcommonwealth.org
Phree Philly

That's ridiculous

No one cares about positive endorsements from pols. They care even less about guilt by remote associations about which they know absolutely nothing.

If you have to explain something for fifteen seconds or more to make your point--hey, did you know Arlen and Pat go way back to--then it is absolutely useless as a campaign tactic.

A new RNC robo call

This time they are asking Democrats to call Joe Sestak and tell him not to criticize Arlen Specter because we need independent voices in Congress who vote against their own party as Specter did on the Obama's budget, not puppets for Obama like Sestak (or somethign like that.)

I guess you can read this as

a) reminding good Ds like me that Specter ain't always with us

b) generating pro-Specter calls into Sestak's office to...I don't know...maybe goad him into running for Senate.

Either way, robo-calls are cheap but I'm happy they are wasting their money with this nonsense.

I think Specter's apostasy has really screwed with their heads that the RNC and they are just lashing out in frustration.

I've heard he's good on the issues

and less good at making the case for how he could beat Tom Corbett, who ran 17 points ahead of the top of the ticket (McCain)in November.

That means that a lot of Obama supporters not only know who Corbett is, but they eschewed the big Democratic button and the Democrat in the race (albeit a racist jerk), and sought out Corbett in the Attorney General's race.

That makes Corbett a tough opponent.

Since a big reason why Democrats have been winning statewides in PA recently is because they've been taking super large majorities out of Philadelphia (compared to history) and taking similarly large majorities out of the Philadelphia suburban counties (which is particularly important and historically significant), I've been thinking that a candidate from the Philly burbs would have the best shot against Corbett.

Can you make the case for how and why Cunningham would sweep the Southeast?

Corbett's victory is not that big a deal

as I adn lots of other Ds who couldn't stomach our candidate voted for him. It was, I think, the first Republican vote I cast since my Dad ran on both tickets in the seventies and I thought it might be my only chance to vote for someone on the Republican ticket.

Cunningham should have a lot of appeal in Phlly and its suburbs. He is pro-choice and anti-gun and strong on women's issues, health care and education, the kinds of issues that are important in the burbs. He has a great record on economic development, having overseen a revival of Bethlehelm after the closure of the steel mills. He's not raised taxes something else that appeals to new democrats in the burbs.

Most importantly, as he said at my house, ask yourself what kinds of issues are going to dominate the debate in 2010, especially in SEPA? Is it going to corruption in government and putting Mike Veon in jail? We know that hasn't played all that well in SEPA even when the economy was doing well. With the economy still in trouble, the candidate with best record on economic issues will have the advantage.

Joe Sestak, EFCA

Whomever runs in the Democratic primary will have to strongly support the Employee Free Choice Act. If not the Democratic base will stay home.

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